Why Silver Is Rising Alongside Gold and Why a $150 Price in 2026 Is on the Table
The recent move in silver has surprised even long-time metals traders. In a short span, silver pushed to the $120 per ounce area, marking one of the most aggressive rallies the market has seen in decades. What makes this move notable is that it isn’t happening in isolation. Gold is climbing at the same time, breaking above $5,600 per ounce and pulling the entire precious metals complex higher.
From a market perspective, this is not a random spike. It reflects a rare alignment of macro pressure, investor behavior, and real-world demand that has been building quietly for years and is now showing up all at once.
Silver’s Momentum Is Not a Typical Commodity Spike
Silver trading near $117.63 per ounce after briefly testing $120 is more than just a psychological milestone. A 65% rise in January alone and gains exceeding 150% since 2025 put this move in a different category from normal cyclical rallies. I’ve followed silver through inflation scares, commodity booms, and recession hedges, and this run feels structurally different.
The metal has moved from under $30 per ounce in early 2025 to current record levels, delivering its strongest January performance in decades. Year-over-year gains above 270% tell the same story: this is sustained momentum, not speculative noise. Even regional markets reflect the stress, with India’s MCX silver contracts jumping nearly 60% in less than a month, reaching around Rs 3.80 lakh per kilogram.
Gold’s Break Above $5,600 Confirms the Broader Trend
Gold’s role in this move is critical. When gold briefly touched $5,584 and then held above $5,523, it confirmed that investors are not chasing silver alone. Gold is up nearly 30% year-to-date after a 65% surge in 2025, outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500.
What makes this more telling is the policy backdrop. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but Jerome Powell’s cautious and dovish tone signaled that restrictive policy may not last forever. Markets interpreted this as the beginning of a shift, and gold reacted immediately. Historically, when gold leads during policy transitions, silver tends to amplify the move.
Why Citigroup Sees Silver Reaching $150
Citigroup’s forecast of silver reaching $150 per ounce within three months is bold, but it isn’t reckless. Analysts led by Max Layton describe silver as behaving like “gold on steroids,” meaning it reacts more aggressively to the same forces driving gold.
The reasoning is straightforward. Chinese buying remains relentless, physical demand shows no real slowdown, and supply constraints are becoming visible. Higher prices are needed to convince existing holders to sell, which tightens availability further. If the gold-silver ratio compresses toward its 2011 low near 32:1, silver could even approach $170 per ounce. These are not theoretical numbers — they’re based on historical relationships that still matter.
The Macro Forces Fueling the Move
A major driver is dollar weakness. The US dollar has fallen to four-year lows, with the DXY index unable to hold above key resistance near 96.33. Political messaging, tariff uncertainty, and growing pressure on the Federal Reserve have accelerated the decline. A weaker dollar consistently boosts precious metals, and this time is no exception.
At the same time, geopolitical risk remains elevated. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, trade frictions between the US and China, and uncertainty around government finances continue to push investors toward safe-haven assets. As Abdelaziz Albogdady of FXEM noted, demand for gold and silver strengthens when confidence in monetary stability weakens.
China adds another layer. As one of the world’s largest refined silver suppliers, China has introduced export restrictions aimed at protecting domestic manufacturers. That decision has tightened global supply just as investors and manufacturers are increasing demand. Some silver funds in China even suspended trading after premiums surged far above net asset value.
Industrial Demand Makes Silver Different From Gold
Unlike gold, silver is not just a store of value. Roughly half of annual silver demand comes from industrial applications. AI infrastructure, data centers, solar panels, electric vehicles, 5G networks, and advanced defense electronics all rely on silver’s conductivity.
Elon Musk highlighted this reality in late December, pointing out that silver is essential across many industrial processes. As costs rise, companies may face margin pressure or pass prices on to consumers, which feeds back into inflation concerns — another tailwind for precious metals.
Technical Signals Suggest a New Phase, Not the End
From a technical standpoint, both metals appear to be in a price discovery phase. Silver is holding above $118 while testing $120, with major psychological support near $100. Gold remains supported above $5,000, with secondary levels around $4,550 and the $4,374–4,273 zone.
Prices are sitting roughly 30% above long-term moving averages, an extreme deviation under normal conditions. Yet momentum remains positive because buying pressure has not faded. This doesn’t mean corrections won’t happen — it means the trend is strong enough to absorb them.
Volatility Is the Risk Investors Cannot Ignore
That said, caution is warranted. Bank of America recently ranked silver highest for bubble-like asset dynamics, even ahead of gold. One-month implied volatility near 26% suggests wide trading ranges, and sharp pullbacks are possible.
Veteran traders like Marc Loeffert of Heraeus Precious Metals warn that history shows rallies like this can shift quickly. When sentiment turns, reversals can be fast and unforgiving. This is why risk management, position sizing, and discipline matter more than bold predictions.
